ANALYSIS OF PROBLEMS OF DESCRIPTION AND MODELING THE CLIMATIC SCENARIOS OF THE EARTH

Abstract

The global climate is a complex system where the gradual accumulation of quantitative changes can lead to an unexpected qualitative leap with unpredictable consequences of processes throughout the climate and ecological system. To date, the best studied and described aero- and hydrodynamic processes generated by solar radiation of the Earth. In fact, we are talking about the work of a giant heat engine, which gives motion to huge masses of air and water due to uneven heating of the Earth's surface. On the one hand, the Earth sciences have already developed a fairly complete picture of the main factors that dictate changes in the Earth's climate. These representations are based on both observable data and theoretical models. On the other hand, the characteristics of individual connections in nature are quantitative, and even the very existence of some connections is not yet sufficiently defined to reliably predict climate change. The reason for the uncertainty is both the lack of observational data and the high degree of self-regulation in the natural system of the Earth. Further development of climate models and methods of weather forecasting is associated with increased spatial resolution and improved physical parameterizations of subgrid scale processes. Level of spatial resolution and largely limited by the complexity of the physical parameterizations performance the most powerful computing systems (supercomputers). Problems of reproduction and prediction of climate change, in contrast to the classical problems of physics, have their own feature: they do not allow direct physical experiment. Moreover, due to the specific characteristics of the climate system (for example, the atmosphere and the ocean are thin films), laboratory experiments are also quite problematic. For a detailed study of the real climate system, there is only a limited set of parameters of the trajectory of the system in the length of several decades, during which fairly complete field measurements were performed. Global climate change is very complex, so modern science can not give an unambiguous answer as to what awaits us in the near future. There are many scenarios for the situation, but here are some of the most important ones. Processing the results of numerical experiments to create a model of modern climate in international programs showed that the main characteristics obtained using different models and then averaged over the whole set of models are closer to the observer actually than the characteristics obtained using individual, even better models.

Key words: modeling, climatic system, physical parameters, forecasting.