РОЗВИТОК Кризової ситуаціЇ в Україні: деякі воЄнно-політичні наслідки

Анотація

Проаналізовано причини та витоки кризової ситуації в Україні за період незалежності держави. Досліджено форми і способи вирішення імперських інтересів Росії. Висвітлено прорахунки і недоліки у реформуванні Збройних сил України та роль патріотизму у вирішенні бойових завдань силовими відомствами України.  

Ключові слова: Антитерористична операція; незаконні збройні формування; збройні сили; збройна агресія.

DEVELOPMENT CRISIS IN UKRAINE: SOME MILITARY AND POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

This article analyzed the practice of contemporary armed conflicts, which can be considered as a composite manifold of a new generation of warfare – a hybrid war, namely the application of the international confrontation between the proportion of political-diplomatic, economic, informational, cybernetic, psychological means.

It is noted that the aggression against Ukraine is carried out by starting a war of a new type. The enemy realizes its aggression not only in the military sense, but also in other spheres.

The causes and origins of the crisis in Ukraine for the period of independence.

Particular attention is paid to the placement the intercontinental ballistic missiles, tactical nuclear missiles and strategic bombers, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, the presence of one of the three largest missile production centers in the USSR on the territory of Ukraine in the early 90-ies of XX century. Also the path of our state to the signing of the Memorandum of security according which a US, Russian Federation (RF) and Great Britain guarantees to respect for the independence, sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

It noted a package of disputes between Ukraine and Russia concerning the ownership and location of the Crimean peninsula and placement of the Black Sea fleet there, what later has played the role of «Trojan horse» during annexation of Crimea.

It is emphasized that economic instability in the state of corruption in all spheres of life have led to the fact that society simply require changes to better and open up new opportunities for the development of the country. This hope was destroyed by the suspension of the process of preparation for the signing of an agreement on Ukraine’s EU association.

Independence Square was the center of the peaceful resistance to this decision of the government. However, the final and most dramatic stage of the revolution of Dignity were the events in Kiev on February 18–20 2014, in which more than a hundred protestors were shot. Events on European Square sharpened contradictions between Kiev and south-eastern regions, in particular the Crimea and Donbas. The political leadership of Russia took advantage of the unstable socio-political situation in Ukraine and moved to the implementation of the imperial project «Russian world» and «Novorosii» that began with the annexation of the Crimea.

It is noted that before the start of active phase in the process of organizing, planning and carrying out the Russian special services, military (special) operations were carried out a number of relevant preparatory activities.

It is emphasized that the result of these complex preparatory activities, in fact, were the total control from the separatists’ part over the infrastructure system in the selected areas of the state authorities and representatives of local law enforcement agencies, the creation of the regime of «assistance» in the area of the State border of Ukraine.

Reviewed the sequence of events for the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russian army, the action of self-proclaimed government on the request to assist in the «peace and quiet» in the Crimea, which are subsequently recognized as military aggression by the Parliamentary assemble of  Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s.

It is noted that the Russian president sent the proposal on the introduction of Russian troops in the Crimea to the Federation Council. Both chambers of the State Duma voted in favor of the introduction of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine and in Crimea in particular on 1 March 2014.

It is noted that the information war against Ukraine began immediately after the proclamation of independence of Ukraine and acquired particularly aggressive form since the annexation of the Crimea. Actually, it was an attempt of disinformation not only the citizens of Ukraine, but also Russian citizens and the international community as a whole.

We investigated the events in the south-eastern part of Ukraine. Their analysis in the marked period of time can attest that all seizures of administrative buildings, areas and objects were made for well-planned and pre-organized screenplay of FSB, GRU and General Staff of RF. 

It is noted that as a result of the events in the south-east of Ukraine in the Kremlin came to the conclusion that the capacity significantly underestimated the fighting capacity of the Ukrainian state and the Ukrainian army in particular. All attempts to raise havoc in the southern and central regions of Ukraine have been strangled. Due to the rise the amount of patriotic society the new leadership of the state has managed not only to bring to Donbass the Armed Forces and the National Guard of Ukraine, but also begin to restore constitutional order in the liberated territories.

Serious attention is paid to the start of the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) with the involvement of the Armed Forces (AF). The attack on the Volnovakha checkpoint which was under control of Armed Forces of Ukraine, the result is 18 Ukrainian military killed, is seen as the beginning of an understanding of the brutal war.

Recorded errors and shortcomings in the reform of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Analyzed in detail the operations in Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo. It was highlighted as a result of agreements with the Russian military column Ukrainian leadership was insidiously shot. Actions under Ilovaisk became the turning point of the war in the east of Ukraine. After the events in Ilovaisk the first time, in a time of independence of Ukraine, begin to radically reform the army.

Events near the city Debaltsevo showed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, despite the significant loss, able to lead active hostilities and to give a fitting rebuff not only to the illegal armed groups, but well-trained elite sub regular Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

As a result of fighting the Kremlin elite was forced to move to an open military aggression with greater involvement of the regular units of the Russian army.

The heavy losses on both sides urged Ukrainian and Russian leaders to the conclusion of the Minsk ceasefire in the contact group Ukraine - Russia - OSCE with participation of representatives of terrorist organizations DNR and LNR.

The attention is focused on the format of negotiations on the peaceful settlement of the conflict, more commonly known as the «Minsk agreement».

As a consequence of events in the overall situation underlines the possibility of Ukraine to carry out six waves of mobilization and appeals for conscript military service, to resume military-technical support of its armed forces and other security agencies, to prove to the world community need the help of international partners in the allocation of funds to the trust funds, the transfer of non-lethal weapons, equips and humanitarian assistance.

Attention is paid to the importance of volunteers in supply questions for the Armed Forces soldiers with the beginning of military operations in the zone of the ATO in the south-east of Ukraine.

It is emphasized that due to human assistance saved a big amount of soldiers life during the war, national sense of patriotism and public danger, gaining strength and understanding.

At the same time it noted continued deterioration of the situation along the line of differentiation in the area of ATO revitalization of illegal armed groups, particularly enemy’s reconnaissance groups and snipers, the placement in close proximity to the state border and on the occupied territory of Ukraine group of forces totaling about 40 thousand soldiers of the regular the Armed Forces of RF.

It is noted that the history of recent decades, and immediately the events in Ukraine testifies to the dangerous trend: domestic conflict that occurred in the country, it becomes a kind of «field of attraction» for foreign hostile forces.

It is noted that the resolution of such conflicts, for that would not be approved by the «Customer», is possible only in the format of the temporary address. While there is no corresponding «solutions», the conflict will fester and continue to bleed.

There is an obvious need for unity of the Ukrainian people for the sake of the national idea, a radical revision of Ukraine plans to protect and fundamental reform of its security sector, and above all, its armed forces.

Key words: anti-terrorist operation; illegal armed groups; the armed forces; armed aggression.