МОНЕТАРНІ ВАЖЕЛІ УПРАВЛІННЯ РИЗИКАМИ НАЦІОНАЛЬНОГО ГОСПОДАРСТВА УКРАЇНИ

Анотація

The article analyzes the main monetary levers of influence of the National Bank of Ukraine on economic development in the context of risk management of the national economy of Ukraine. Changes in indicators of the monetary sphere of the economy in relation to the level of the shadow economy are analyzed. In particular, the calculation of the Fechner correlation coefficient determines the presence, closeness and direction of correlation between individual monetary aggregates of the money supply, consumer price index, exchange rate and the level of shadowing of the economy.

According to the results of the study, a moderate direct correlation between the level of the shadow economy and the consumer price index is observed in Ukraine (the Fechner correlation coefficient is 0.29). The correlation between the value of changes in the exchange rate and the level of the shadow economy was found, the value of the Fechner correlation coefficient was 0.69 (close direct dependence). At the same time, there is a moderate correlation between the level of the shadow economy and the monetary aggregate M0, which includes cash in circulation outside deposit-taking corporations (the Fechner correlation coefficient is 0.23; a moderate direct correlation between indicators). There is a moderate inverse interconnection between the monetary aggregate M2 and the level of the shadow economy (the Fechner correlation coefficient is -0.23). The possibilities of the monetary sector regulator to influence the reduction and risks of the functioning of the national economy, in particular in the context of reducing its shadow sector, have been determined.

In order to minimize the risk of shadowing the national economy, the National Bank of Ukraine should pay attention to certain monetary levers, taking into account the correlation between the studied indicators, in particular, to increase the volume of non-cash payments, strengthen the national currency and reduce the level of inflation. The level of monetization of the Ukrainian economy is quite significant: from 47.7% to 60.2% during the study period (2005-2018). This is not conducive to the cash flow of major economic entities, since cash is used to a large extent to serve shadow transactions. The article presents the directions of ensuring the sustainable economic development of the country on the basis of the use of monetary levers to influence the cash flow of the main economic entities in the economy of Ukraine.

Keywords: monetary levers, shadow economy, exchange rate, consumer price index, money supply, currency stability.