РОЛЬ ГЛОБАЛЬНИХ ЧИННИКІВ У ФОРМУВАННІ КОН’ЮНКТУРИ ФІНАНСОВОГО РИНКУ УКРАЇНИ

Анотація

In this article there was assessed the role of global factors in financial market of Ukraine conjuncture formation. There is made an attempt to broaden the examination of range of important indicators that determine the development level of financial market of Ukraine. The analysis undertaken on the basis of data over the course of 2008-2018 determined certain interconnections and tendencies of factor and performance indicators using the Fechner correlation coefficient, which can be used to statistic values that don’t have the normal law of distribution. There were investigated interconnections of underground economy with external debt of Ukraine. The increase of external national debt of Ukraine is the important factor of national economy shadowing. The major number of economic operations being proceeded within shadow economy are the direct consequence of nation’s debt to foreign entries. To the main factors that cause the national economy shadowing can be included the absence of fully featured market environment, systemic deficiencies of tax policy, high corruption level and incompetence of public officials, instability of entrepreneurial climate and insufficient protection of investors, hard political situation. It was detected that there is an interconnection between interest rates in Ukraine and underground economy level, according to which, while interest rates are reduced, it becomes more profitable for enterprises to work within a legal field and to pay taxes officially. There was examined a impact of LIBOR rate on interest rates level in Ukraine and other global factors of world economy. It is found that the refinancing rate in Ukraine considerably overstates the LIBOR rate value. It is clear that it is dependent on other internal and external factors. Moreover, with the help of correlation analysis based on Fechner correlation coefficient, it is found the significant influence of LIBOR USD rate on external national debt of Ukraine. It is explained by possibilities and interests of foreign creditors: with the world GDP increase grows the resource base of global credit market, and the increase of LIBOR rate raises the profitability of relevant credit operations. However, the fundraising at high interest rates that takes place in practice, doesn’t meet the national interests of Ukraine. The results of the study can contribute to more accurate and detailed analysis of interdependence between national economy rates and world financial indicators.

Keywords: financial market, public debt, external debt, public debt management, refinancing rate, gross domestic product, investments, underground economy.